Peace Technology

By Bo Janzon SECRAB Security Research, Sweden, bo.janzon@secrab.eu

Introduction and acknowledgement

This paper is based on the annual report of Department 4, “Military Technology”, of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences for 2014, about "Peace Technology", i.e. non-military technical measures that can help remove obstacles to the return to or establishment of a normal society . The study focused on war and conflict affected nations, at a time when large-scale hostilities have ceased and the community should be geared towards normalisation. Against this there are usually many obstacles. Four countries, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Afghanistan, Syria and Ukraine are mentioned as examples. The info herein was updated to 2022.

Mines and demining is a key area, which, however, was deemed to be far developed and well described in other writings. It will just be treated briefly here, but there is still great need for development and improvement. The original report2 was prepared by a group of Fellows of the Academy: Professor Bo Janzon (Chair and main author), Colonel Jan-Erik Lövgren and Professor Bengt Vretblad, later expanded with Colonel Lennart Axelsson. Other people who have contributed information and comments were Academy Fellows Brigadier Ulf Henricsson and Captain (Navy) Håkan Rugeland Other experts who were kind enough to contribute were Lieutenant Colonel Fredrik Johnsson, Swedec, Messrs. Conny Åkerblom, MSB, and Jan-Inge Kull, of the Police Authority. Mr. Hans Wallin, Cesium AB, also contributed much to this paper.

Background

Today's technological societies are remarkably vulnerable to breakdowns or sabotage. Disabling some communications nodes or power lines can render the electricity supply paralysed for a long time; computer viruses can disable communication networks; toxins in a central water supply can kill or injure large numbers of people. These technical vulnerabilities are particularly acute in the face of military aggression. A few bombs or other attacks that impact major industrial installations or communication nodes can be devastating.

One way to reduce the technical vulnerability may be to create differently structured technical systems, in particular decentralised ones. An energy system based on energy efficiency and local, renewable energy sources, will be much less vulnerable to bombs or saboteurs than huge centralized power systems. The Internet is much less vulnerable to attack than a few major TV and radio stations. Technical systems based on networks, independent of external energy supply, and with less consequence if affected, are generally considerably more resistant against attacks than large, centralised, expert dependent, and potentially hazardous systems.

In developing countries, especially those recently exposed to armed conflict, the infrastructure may be less developed and often damaged by violent action. The existence of continued armed violence can be a difficult obstacle to any form of normalisation.
The UN's eight Millennium Development Goals were replaced by the 17 "Sustainable Development goals" during the autumn of 2015 . Among these numbered goals, one can find, among others:

• …achieve food security…
• …ensure healthy lives…
• Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education …
• Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls.
• Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.
• Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.
• Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth …
• Build resilient infrastructure …
• Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable.
• Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels.

None of these highly relevant goals will be achievable in countries or areas where a normal, peaceful society cannot be established or restored!

International Law, agreements and international regulations

International Law consists of all international laws and principles that govern how states and other international actors must cooperate and how they may and may not act towards each other. International law is binding on states, but accountability is usually limited when a State has breached those rules.
In the area of disarmament and non-proliferation, the international community has agreed on a number of agreements and frameworks to promote peace and security:

In the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), countries without nuclear weapons have pledged not to acquire these weapons, while the five countries that had nuclear weapons in 1968 have pledged to disarm and not disseminate technology to develop nuclear weapons.

The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) prohibits chemical weapons. The states that had such types of weapons were committed to destroy them. The Convention also has a functioning control mechanism through the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), based in The Hague.

The Convention on the Prohibition of Biological and Toxin Weapons (BTWC) bans the development, production, acquisition, trade and storage of microbiological, biological agents and toxins as weapons. The Convention is not an explicit prohibition against the use of these weapons, but presents a basic norm against production, trade and use of biological weapons.

Some weapons that were seen as particularly inhumane were regulated or prohibited by the 1980 Weapons Convention (CCW), including incendiary weapons, some land mines and IEDs, and permanently blinding laser weapons. One current issue on the revision agenda is the regulation of autonomous weapons systems, i.e. weapons systems without human control.

The Ottawa Convention bans the use of anti-personnel mines which can be detonated by the presence of a person.

The Convention on Cluster Munitions prohibits cluster munitions.

A UN Programme of Action and an EU strategy with an action plan were developed to combat the illicit trade in small arms and light weapons (SALW).

The UN Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) is an international binding instrument created for effective national control of Conventional Weapons, including standards for what such controls must include. This is the first binding agreement relating to trade in conventional weapons.

Within the so-called export control regimes (Zangger Committee, the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the Australia Group, Missile Technology Control Regime and the Wassenaar Arrangement) it was agreed on a political basis which products and technologies will be export controlled, as well as other export control related issues.

A common problem is that not all countries have acceded to these agreements. Sweden has done so for all rules mentioned.

IATG, Safer Guard etc.

International Ammunition Technical Guidelines, IATG , is a regulatory framework for the management and storage of ammunition and explosives, prepared by a large number of experts tasked by the UN, which is being implemented through the UN programme SaferGuard . It must be seen as the "state-of-the-art" in munitions handling and storage.
The IATG includes a description of principles on how to administer and liquidate stocks of ammunition and weapons. All relevant areas are treated, like risk analysis, risk to society, theft and auto-ignition, or sabotage. The IATG, which is freely available over the Internet in many languages, forms an excellent common basis for international cooperation. It can be introduced in various logical steps.

Peace Technology - needs in different countries

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bosnia-Herzegovina, is a country at the crossroads of south and southeast Europe, located in the Balkans. In the south it has a narrow coast on the Adriatic Sea within the Mediterranean, which is about 20 kilometres (12 miles) long .
The population was estimated in 2020 to be about 3.5 million. The antagonism between Bosnia-Herzegovina’s three dominant ethnic groups Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats aggravated by the civil war in the early 1990s, means continuing conflicts.
Trust in politics is low, and low wages and high unemployment makes it tempting to become part of the corrupt society. Competence loss is a great problem, and many qualified people have left the country to create a better future elsewhere.
There are still very large quantities of landmines and unexploded ordnance left in the country, which cannot be expected to be cleared in the foreseeable future. During the late spring of 2014 huge amounts of rain fell over Bosnia in a short time, which led to extensive flooding. One result of this was that landmines from the war in the 1990s were washed out with the liquefied soil, and sometimes mines have re-infected land already cleared.
OSCE and SFOR have input much effort to gain control and order of weapons and munitions in the country but there is much left to do.

Afghanistan

Occupying 652,864 square kilometres of land, this land-locked country is predominantly mountainous with plains in the north and the southwest, which are separated by the Hindu Kush mountain range. As of 2021, its population was 40.2 million, composed mostly of ethnic Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks.

The Soviet-Afghan War 1979-88 had drastic social effects on Afghanistan. The militarisation of society led to heavily armed police, private bodyguards, openly armed civilian defence groups and other such things becoming the norm in Afghanistan for decades thereafter. The traditional power structure had shifted from clergy, community elders, intelligentsia and military in favour of powerful warlords. Several years of unrest followed.

With support from Pakistan the Taliban were able to form a government in 1996. The Taliban movement is a predominantly Pashtun organization that follows a fundamentalist form of Islam. The Taliban movement originated in Pakistani refugee camps, that Afghans fled to after the Soviet Union's intervention in Afghanistan. The Taliban were opposed by, among others, the Northern Alliance, comprising the forces of several major warlords. Successively, and with additional support from Pakistan they were defeated by the Taliban. Over 400 000 Afghans were killed in these conflicts.

In 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan, supported by a coalition of other Western states, to remove the Taliban from power after they had refused to hand over Osama Bin Laden, the leader of the Al-Qaeda. This led to the longest war ever of the US, ending in the drastic power re-assumption by the Talibans in 2021. It was enabled by the inability and unwillingness to fight of the Government’s armed forces, although on paper much stronger and better equipped than the Taliban forces. Confidence in the Army was, before, relatively high, in terms of its fighting capacity as well as correct behaviour, with a low level of corruption. The International Community had, however, totally mistaken the motivation of Afghan Army soldiers, who largely chose to escape or even join the Talibans when they arrived !

Positive development in Afghanistan had occurred due to the coalition supported work undertaken by the Afghan leadership, from 2001 and forward, to modernise the country and create a sustainable long-term political and economic situation. Access to free and unbound information was created by more than 50 television and 150 radio channels. Nine out of ten households in the cities owned mobile phones. The number of students had risen from one million, exclusively boys, to about 8 million, of which 40% were girls. The proportion of the literacy had increased from 12 to 39%. 64% had access to clean water against previously 22%. The expected average life expectancy had increased from 43 to 64 years, Afghanistan had caught up, and in several respects surpassed its neighbours in the development of a modern society. Equally important was, of course, to weaken the counteracting forces, including the Taliban.

Major outstanding issues were state economy, which was based essentially on support from the outside world. Due to lack of safety and security and poor infrastructure, it is difficult to extract the natural wealth existing. The tax collection system was not developed; only about 10% of the population paid taxes and wealthy people invested their money abroad. Corruption was widespread throughout the public sector and constitutes a major obstacle to achieving the sense of security and confidence needed for continued positive development of the country.

In addition to supporting the good forces, the country had tried in vain to weaken the groups that opposed a peaceful, democratic development. Among security-sensitive business transactions in a country like Afghanistan, the arms trade is important. Customers were primarily the Taliban, but also criminal groups and to some extent the IS. The bulk of goods/services to be mediated were already produced and in circulation. Suppliers may be the producer, an end user (such as a state) or a legitimate third party, but much too often munitions of various kinds will be provided by, for instance, corrupt public servants. Customers can possess own means of payment, but such business is often sponsored, both politically and economically, by third parties which do not participate actively in the hostilities, but which, for various reasons, want to influence the course of events. Customers and suppliers are brought together by brokers who survey the market for supply and demand and administer transfer of goods/services and compensation.

Contextual factors have greater significance than a Westerner would imagine. There is great distinction between the treatment of friend and foe, and underlying, often historical conflicts due to committed wrongs can be resurrected for generations to come. Thoughts on general human rights and universal human equality are very poorly anchored and respect for international agreements is low.

Peace technology could be applied to reduce these flows, by influencing the producers to limit the production of armaments, establishing (and enforcing) end-user agreements and establishing transparency and traceability of the produced materiel. The suppliers should, if possible, be limited only to operators with state support and acceptance from the international community. This can be made possible by strict monitoring of the market and equipment produced, relative to end-user certificates issued. Producers’ origin marking is a valuable tool, but international demands for supplementary labelling of elder munitions should be included on the agenda.

Sponsor and broker influence can be reduced through greater transparency in the legal arms trade, but also through improved analysis of the value chain, by tracing transfer of armaments through financial transactions. Brokers can usually be affected by law enforcement efforts, and the risk of detection should be increased and sanctions tightened. To affect this, strong international and joint action will usually be required, which is often hampered by global policy considerations, for example in the UN Security Council. In summary, increased ability to identify and track military equipment as well as increased opportunities to link different databases in search of illegal transfers of military equipment and money will be required.

Since the Talibans took over the Government of Afghanistan in the summer of 2021, most foreign aid operations have been halted, among other due to the new Government’s inability to provide sufficient security for foreign aid workers throughout the country. One advantage, however, may be that the Talibans may seem less corrupt than the former rulers.

Due to many of the new Government’s measures, such as making it difficult or prohibiting girls and women from study, limiting free speech, lacking full control of the territory, having many conflicts with different armed groups, arbitrary arrests and inhumane punishments, Afghanistan has, regrettably, become a pariah nation, which will hamper any recovery for a long time to come.

Syria

Syria is a Middle Eastern country on the east coast of the Mediterranean, comprising 185 180 km2. Its population was about 17.5 million in 2020 . Syrians are an overall indigenous Levantine people, closely related to their immediate neighbours, such as Lebanese, Palestinians, Jordanians and Jews. Syrian Arabs, together with some 600,000 Palestinians (not including the 6 million refugees outside the country), make up roughly 74% of the population. Kurds constitute about 9% or 1.6 Million, including 40,000 Yazidis. The third large group is Turkish-speaking Syrian Turkmen (numbers not well known, but roughly estimated at between 2 and 20%). There are also some Assyrians (3–4%), Circassians (1.5%) and Armenians (1%)7.

Sunni Muslims make up around 70% of Syria's population, of which 85% are Sunni Arabs. Most Kurds and Turkmens are Sunni. 13% of Syrians are Shia Muslims, 10% are Christians, of which 3% Druzes. Many Christian Syrians belong to a high socio-economic class.

Syria is a semiarid country with scarce water resources. The largest water consuming sector in Syria is agriculture. Domestic water use is only about 9% of total water use. A big challenge for Syria before the civil war was its high population growth, leading to rapidly increasing demand for urban and industrial water.

Bashar al-Assad, succeeding his father, has been president since 2000. Throughout his rule, Syria and the ruling Ba'ath Party have been and continue to be condemned and criticised for various human rights abuses, including the use of chemical weapons against the population. Since 2011, Syria has been embroiled in a multi-sided civil war, with a number of countries in the region and beyond involved militarily or otherwise. As a result, a number of self-proclaimed political entities have emerged on Syrian territory, including the Syrian opposition, Rojava (the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, a group dominated by Kurds) , Tahrir al-Sham and the Islamic State (IS) group, now almost extinct. Syria was ranked last on the Global Peace Index from 2016 to 2018, making it the most violent country in the world due to the war. The conflict has killed more than 570,000 people, caused 7.6 million internally displaced people and over 5 million refugees, making population assessment difficult in recent years.

The ongoing Syrian Civil War was inspired by the Arab Spring revolutions, and began in 2011 as a chain of peaceful protests, followed by a crackdown by the Syrian Army. In 2011, Army defectors declared the formation of the Free Syrian Army and began forming fighting units. The opposition is dominated by Sunni Muslims, whereas the leading government figures are generally associated with Alawites, a group originating from Shia Muslims. The war also involves rebel groups (such as IS and al-Nusra) and various foreign countries, such as Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the United States, either directly involved themselves in the conflict or providing support to one or another faction. Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah support the Syrian Arab Republic and the Syrian Armed Forces, and in particular Russia has intervened extensively with military forces. Especially Russian air and helicopter strikes have had profound influence on the war. Neighbouring Turkiye, a NATO country, has declared a vested interest in the northern parts of Syria, has intervened there militarily and is threatening to do so again. This has led to claims of a proxy war in Syria.

In June 2020 the Syrian pound plummeted to 3,000 to the dollar. The new lows for the Syrian currency, and the dramatic increase in sanctions, began to appear to raise new concerns about the survival of the Assad government. After the withdrawal of the US, Russia has continued to expand its influence and military role in the areas of Syria where the main military conflict was occurring. Upcoming implementation of new heavy sanctions by the US could devastate the Syrian economy, ruin any chances of recovery, destroy regional stability, and destabilise the entire region.

In early 2022, The UN reported there were massive problems looming for Syria's ability to feed its population in the near future. One possibly positive sign for the well-being of Syria's population is that several Arab countries began an effort to normalise relations with Syria, and to conclude deals to provide energy supplies to Syria.

Syria has been heavily impacted in the latest years by many years of severe droughts, the COVID pandemic and the war, still raging at many locations, and by sanctions imposed by the US and the EU, motivated by the Syrian Government’s continuing repression against the civilian population .

NGOs may provide humanitarian aid and early recovery assistance in Syria, provided that the work does not violate the sanctions. The Syrian regime has a proven record of corruption, siphoning and weaponising aid, whether by distributing it exclusively in loyalist areas, manipulating the exchange rate of aid transfer, or hiring aid and procurement workers from its own circles. This has deterred donor governments from funding non-essential items such as early recovery aid. Despite the push for more support from Western governments for early recovery, the pleas of humanitarian and UN agencies have mostly fallen on deaf ears. The humanitarian situation in Syria is extremely dire. Around 90 percent of Syrians live in poverty while 60 percent are food insecure. A severe drought—the worst in decades—has further exacerbated the risk of a full-fledged humanitarian catastrophe.9

After 11 years of war and intense use of explosive weapons in Syria, up to 300,000 explosive ordnance items have failed to detonate, putting 50% of the population at risk. More than 60 organisations specialised in Humanitarian Mine Action operate in Syria .

Syria records the largest number of explosive ordnance casualties in the world, the majority of recorded accidents being in north-western Syria, but all of Syria is contaminated. Operations to identify the extent of the contamination and safely clear the land for effective use will take decades. United Nations Mine Action Service (UNMAS) coordinates casualty reports and recorded 12 345 explosive ordnance casualties in Syria between 2013 and 2020, resulting in 4,389 deaths and 7 956 injuries. In 2020 were recorded the highest number of annual casualties (2 729) for Syria since its reporting began in 1999. The actual number of casualties is certainly much higher, given limitations in data collection. The victims were most often travelling or moving from one place to another, performing agricultural and household work, or children playing with found explosive ordnance devices9.

In 2022, extensive bombing and shelling continues in northwest and northeast Syria, in addition to widespread violence across the country through missile and drone strikes, use of vehicle-based improvised explosive devices, and small firearms and light weapons. Contamination is incredibly diverse and massive as the whole range of explosive weapons was used in Syria: Improvised explosive devices, landmines, including improvised mines, aerial bombs, mortars, etc. have been widely used during the 11-year conflict.

Ukraine

Ukraine is still in a war with Russia, commencing in 2014 and continuing since, at various intensities, and also by different proxies. Since 24 February 2022 Russia has launched an all-out military attack on the Ukraine.

Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest European country after Russia, covering approximately 600,000 square kilometres and had a population of around 40 million people . It is bordered by Russia to the east and northeast; by Belarus to the north; by Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary to the west; and by Romania and Moldova to the southwest; with a coastline along the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to the south and southeast, respectively. Kyiv is Ukraine's capital and largest city, with a population of about 3 million. The country's language is Ukrainian, and many people are also fluent in Russian.

According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians made up roughly 78% of the population, while Russians were the largest minority, at some 17.3% of the population. Minority populations (of 0.6% or less) included Belarusians, Moldovans, Crimean Tatars, Bulgarians, Hungarians, Romanians, Poles, Jews, Armenians, Greeks and Tatars. It was also estimated that there were 10 000 – 40 000 Koreans in Ukraine.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine regained independence and declared itself neutral, forming a limited military partnership with the post-Soviet “Commonwealth of Independent States”, while also joining the Partnership for Peace with NATO in 1994. In 2013 a series of mass demonstrations known as the “Euromaidan” erupted across Ukraine, eventually escalating into the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, which led to the establishment of a new government and pro-Russian unrest. During this period, unmarked Russian troops invaded the Crimean Peninsula, later annexed by Russia; and pro-Russia unrest in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region culminated in Russia-backed separatists seizing territory throughout the region, sparking the War in Donbas. This series of events marked the beginning of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, and in a major escalation of the conflict in February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since the outbreak of war in 2014, Ukraine has continued to seek closer economic, political, and military ties with the Western world, including the European Union and NATO13.

Ukraine is a unitary republic under a semi-presidential system with separate legislative, executive, and judicial branches. It is a developing country, ranking 74th on the Human Development Index. Despite having a free-market economy, Ukraine remains among the poorest countries in Europe by nominal GDP per capita, especially in the east, due to the war. However, due to its extensive and fertile land, pre-war Ukraine was one of the largest grain exporters in the world. It is a founding member of the United Nations, as well as a member of the Council of Europe, the World Trade Organisation, the OSCE, and is currently in the process of joining the European Union.

On 18 March 2014, Russia and the self-proclaimed Republic of Crimea signed a treaty of accession of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol to the Russian Federation. The UN General Assembly immediately responded by passing resolution 68/262 declaring that the referendum was invalid and supporting the territorial integrity of Ukraine; only Russia voted against the resolution. However, it was not enforceable. Attempts to pass enforceable resolutions in the U.N. Security Council were blocked by Russian vetoes.

In late 2014, Ukraine ratified the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement, a "first but most decisive step" towards EU membership. In February 2015, after a summit hosted in Minsk, Belarus, President Poroshenko negotiated a ceasefire with the separatist troops. The resulting agreements, known as the Minsk Protocol, included conditions such as the withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the front line and decentralisation of rebel regions by the end of 2015. On 1 January 2016, Ukraine joined the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the European Union, which aims to modernise and develop Ukraine's economy, governance and rule of law to EU standards and gradually increase integration with the EU Internal market. In 2017 the European Union approved visa-free travel for Ukrainian citizens: entitling Ukrainians to travel to the Schengen area for tourism, family visits and business reasons, with the only document required being a valid biometric passport.

Volodymyr Zelensky, a very popular (also in Russia) comedian and actor, announced his candidacy in the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election, in competition with then-president Petro Poroshenko. In 2015, Zelensky had become the star of a television series “Servant of the People”, where he played the role of the president of Ukraine. In the series, Zelensky's character was a high-school history teacher in his 30’s, who won the presidential election after a viral video showed him ranting against government corruption in Ukraine. Although a political outsider, Zelensky had already become one of the frontrunners in opinion polls for the election. He won the election with 73 percent of the vote in the second round, defeating Poroshenko. He has positioned himself as an anti-establishment and anti-corruption figure.

In the spring of 2021, Russia began building up troop strengths along its border with Ukraine. On 22 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered military forces to enter the breakaway Ukrainian republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, calling the act a "peacekeeping mission". Putin also officially recognised Donetsk and Luhansk as sovereign states, fully independent from the Ukrainian government.
In the early hours of 24 February 2022, Putin announced what he called a "special military operation" to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine, launching a large-scale invasion of the country. Initially Russian troops were told that the “special military operation” of the invasion of Ukraine would last for only four or five days.

One month later it appeared that early Russian and US predictions for a quick victory in Ukraine had been based on faulty intelligence. At this point in time after the first thirty days of fighting of the war, Russia had not yet achieved either of its two primary initial objectives, the capture of Ukraine's two largest cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv, with Ukrainian counter-offensives pushing back Russian front lines around Kyiv. Meanwhile, several newspapers were reporting a woefully under-trained Russian army and of a lack of adequate Russian equipment, food, and weaponry.

In late March Ukrainian forces began to reclaim territory in the Kyiv region which had previously been taken and held by Russian troops. Eventually the Kyiv regional Ukrainian forces pushed the Russian front lines in the Kyiv vicinity all of the way back to the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, Russia declared that the Russian “retreat” in the Kyiv region had been a part of its plan all along, and that Russia would merely be repositioning its troops in the Ukrainian east, placing them there to enable a new Donbas area offensive.

President Zelensky’s leadership during the crisis has won him widespread international praise, and he has been described as a symbol of the Ukrainian resistance.

In September 2022 the war is still ongoing in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Although Russian forces seem to have encountered many problems, including a high attrition rate and difficulty ensuring adequate logistics, their overwhelming strength and materiel resources, combined with their rough WW2 annihilation tactics, comprising heavy artillery and rocket shelling before any ground forces attack, has resulted in most of the Donbas area being taken by Russia. On the southern front there has been less action, enabling Ukraine to retake some smaller areas. The Russian offensive towards the west, to Odessa and eventually the Transnistria region in Moldova, has been halted. Odessa is a very important Black Sea port, where a large part of Ukraine’s grain export used to pass. Mykolaiv, another important port, is also still in Ukrainian hands, although under heavy shelling from Russian artillery. Both are however closed for sea traffic, being blocked by Russian naval mines and the Russian Black Sea fleet. Lately an agreement mediated by the UN has enabled many ships loaded with grain to leave Odessa and other seaports, also dodging the multitude of Ukrainan mines laid to block Russian amphibious operations from the sea.

New long-range high precision weapons, supplied to the Ukrainian forces by Western countries, mean that Ukraine can now very efficiently attack important Russian targets, such as ammunition dumps, logistics depots and transport routes. However the force ratio is still in Russian favour. Ukraine is currently training many new soldiers, whereas Russia seems to have severe problems with keeping their troops functioning, and recruitment of new soldiers seems to be difficult. Thus, the balance may be shifting in Ukraine’s favour. Lately the Ukraine successfully launched a Blitz-Krieg effort against the occupied areas of Charkiv Oblast, succeeding to drive out the Russian troops from a vast area of about 6 000 km2 in a matter of days, also retaking the important logistic hubs of Kupiansk, Izium and Lyman. The operation continues into Luhansk oblast. The concurrent Ukrainian offensive on the southern front, against Kherson, also seems to have some success! Fighting continues at the north end of the Donbas region and in the South, around Kherson. On 30 September 2022, after bogus referendums in the areas concerned, Russia unilaterally decided to annex the four Eastern and Southern regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to be full parts of Russia.

Crime rates in Ukraine have reduced significantly in the latest 5 years . It is unclear whether this reduction (excepting war crimes) has continued during the war, since the police would be occupied with many other, often lifesaving tasks, reducing their ability to catch normal criminals. However a feeling of Ukrainian national coherence in face of the Russian onslaught may also serve to reduce “normal” crime.

Corruption is a major problem in Ukraine. United States diplomats described Ukraine under Presidents Kuchma (1994 - 2005) and Yushchenko (2005 - 2010) as a kleptocracy. Corruption has increased steadily since 2009 . Ukraine ranked 122nd out of 180 countries in 2021, the second most corrupt in Europe, with Russia the most at 136 . Fighting corruption is one of the most important tasks for Ukraine to enable the country to qualify for European Union membership.

Ukraine already has more than nine years’ worth of scattered unexploded ordnance and landmines. Russia, not having accessed to the mine-ban treaty, is extensively using anti-personnel landmines, as well as anti-tank mines. It has also shown that Russian ordnance is often not reliable, and massive amounts of non-exploded warheads add to the problem, especially since Russia is now resorting to many old and obsolete weapons systems. More than 13 percent of Ukraine’s total territory is contaminated by unexploded ordnance and landmines, and over 10 percent of Ukraine’s farmland is contaminated by explosives . In all, more than 180 000 km2 of the Ukrainian territory is estimated to be infested with land-mines and UXOs.

Local mine- and ordnance-clearing capacity is stretched thin due to the scope of contamination and the urgent need for the explosive ordnance experts of the Ukrainian forces to support the ongoing war against Russia. In most communities affected by war across Ukraine the residents are unable to return to their homes and rebuild their lives safely due to unexploded ordnance and landmine contamination.9

At least 12 million people have fled their homes since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations (UN) says. More than five million have left for neighbouring countries, while seven million people are still thought to be displaced inside Ukraine itself. However, hundreds of thousands of refugees have returned to their home country - especially to cities like Kyiv .

Ukraine went into the war in good economic shape, with its economy growing at an annual almost 7%; strong prices for its exports of grain, iron and steel; a well-regulated banking industry and a government deficit of less than 3% of GDP last year. Its debt stood at just under 50% of GDP. An impressively computerised tax and benefits system means that revenues are still coming in smoothly from the parts of the economy that are still functioning. Pensions and government salaries are all still being paid, even in areas that are now under Russian occupation, thanks to resilient digital systems and a surprisingly unscathed internet, supported by Elon Musk’s Starlink system. Most businesses, for now, are still paying their employees, even if they cannot operate as normal, or at all. Many businesses have changed their activities to give support to the Ukrainian war effort. Amazingly, payroll taxes are down by only 1%, the finance minister says. However, the suspension of all maritime exports was a critical blow .

There are estimates that Ukraine’s economy is expected to shrink by about 45 percent in 2022, although the magnitude of the contraction will depend on the duration and intensity of the war .

Assistance from the International community to Ukraine is very extensive, both as humanitarian aid, funding for the armed forces and other cost, and as assistance in kind with weapons, munitions and other military equipment. Lately heavier and more long-range weaponry is being supplied by the US, the UK and many European Union member states. Both NATO and other states are cautious not to provide assistance that would be seen as a direct act of war against Russia. There was long a hesitance to provide heavier weapons, now eliminated. There is remaining resistance against providing very long-range weapons that could reach targets deep in Russia. However Ukraine has received USSR-era fighter jets from several NATO countries.

Problem areas of importance for the peace technology

Non-violent resistance and civil defence

Communication systems

Communications are required to be able to plan and organise a society. Communications are also becoming increasingly important in the citizen's daily life. Non-violent resistance is an established method to prevent escalation of an internal conflict. To be able to coordinate non-violent resistance communications are required, which are often less developed and unreliable in countries in question.

Can good communication be created, for example, via mobile systems and smart phones , it will increase the capacity to organise non-violent actions quickly and efficiently. Such systems are best built at smaller scale, but with opportunity to connect with the outside world via links or satellites. Such systems will be less vulnerable, and may also reduce opportunities for a repressive regime to use shut-off or blocking of networks as measures against a non-compliant population.

Reporting systems

In an environment of high violence and sometimes with several armed groups fighting each other, an effective reporting and warning system will reduce the impact on the civilian population , by giving it the opportunity to avoid battles and dangerous areas. A modern mobile network can provide good opportunity to create such systems.

Protective gear

In addition to personal protective equipment such as helmets and body armour there are simple measures that can improve protection in existing buildings. Glass windows crushed by explosive blast or small arms fire involve substantial risk of death or severe injury to people inside the building. A simple polymer film bonded to the inside of a window will keep the fragments together and can greatly reduce the risks. To be effective, the film should also be attached to the window frame. Replacement of window materials by tempered or laminated glass will also greatly reduce risks, as well as changing to window panes made of, for example, polycarbonate. The latter will be suitable at higher risk levels, and will also much improve burglary protection. In the Ukraine at present there is a severe lack of window glazing to protect combat-affected houses and apartments from the upcoming winter weather.

The strongest protection against combat action can be achieved in shelters. Even relatively simple ones can result in greatly increased probability of survival of civilians. If you can dig down into the ground, conditions are often favourable to be able to achieve good protection.

Also, humanitarian assistance efforts will be afflicted by violence, sometimes to the extent that it will render impossible any effort in an area. The need for both personal protection and better protected vehicles is increasing.

Monitoring etc.

A mobile network can also be used for monitoring of critical points and zones, for forwarding alarms, etc. in order to warn and alert.

Societal structure

The society in countries concerned is often highly disturbed and injured, civil authorities are lacking or not in control.

Democracy building

Democracy is one of the main guarantors of a society where violence may be pushed aside. Democracy requires information and communication, which can be obtained via mobile networks. Knowledge and information can be disseminated in an attractive manner via a mobile data network, for example through various types of computer games. Education is critical in order to improve conditions in this regard.

Critical infrastructure

Critical infrastructure, such as water, electricity and communications supply are often damaged or missing. Fast and transitory measures will be required to restore function, preferably in such a manner that the solution can later be made permanent.

Construction of small-scale infrastructure

Rather than trying to build/rebuild large supply systems, it may be simpler and more reliable to rebuild them as lesser, of each other relatively independent systems. As mentioned, this reduces both vulnerability and consequences of any damage to them.

Administrative systems

States under construction often lack functioning administrative management systems. Examples include population registry and taxes.

Presence of objects that promote/facilitate the use of violence

After a recent conflict there will be enormous amounts of materiel available in society, possible to use for continued violence.

Weapons, especially military type weapons (assault rifles, anti-tank weapons)

Military types of automatic weapons, such as the Russian Ak 47, will normally be quite easily available in the affected communities. Some will be surplus after the armed hostilities, others will be stolen or embezzled weapons from legal sources, such as military or police. In 22) it is estimated that by 2017 there were over 1 billion small arms in the World, distributed as shown in figure 1.

Figure 1 Estimated shares of one billion small arms in the world in 2017

Many weapons are stolen, misappropriated and through illicit trade will end up with warlords, terrorists and ultimately with “normal” criminals. Nations often consider surplus weapons and munitions to be assets rather than liabilities, and will prefer export rather than destruction of them.

These nations also often have poor accounting and control of weapons, munitions and explosives, and they may be kept at poor security. Some weapons do not even have a serial number, making it difficult to prosecute somebody who stole it. Often marking of munitions will also be poor. A reliable and indelible marking system for weapons would help much!
Catastrophic losses of state-owned weapons are not unusual. For example, in 2003 4.2 million small arms “disappeared” in Iraq and as late as in 2014 750,000 US weapons were “lost” in Afghanistan.

Munitions and explosives

Also, military and other explosives are usually available in large quantities after an armed conflict. It may involve excess ammunition, often stored in large "dumps" or primitive storage facilities with inadequate security and monitoring. During 2005-2014 there were accidents with munitions stores in more than 60 countries, about 20 000 people were killed and many others were injured or maimed.

Bombs and other unexploded ammunition (UXO) are another source of explosives, particularly dangerous because they may be armed and ready to detonate at the least impact. Another source is mines, which are also very dangerous if not defuzed or neutralised in the right way. Also, civil explosives used for construction, etc. are often under inadequate control and easy to steal. Stolen explosives and munitions constitute the main components for the manufacture of weapons used in terrorist attacks, and bombs and IEDs are used in the majority of such attacks.

Figure 2 Number of accidentally exploded munitions dumps

Raw materials for manufacturing explosives

Ordinary substances readily available in civil society can be used to manufacture home-made explosives. In principle you will only need a suitable fuel and an oxidiser that are well mixed in the right proportion, with the right particle size, or bound in a chemical compound.

Within the EU, there were introduced increased controls and restrictions on some substances that can be used to make illegal explosives. The US has made similar efforts. The rest of the world is largely lacking restrictions, but after the last large and serious explosion accidents in China, including the grave accident in the port of Tianjin, increased attention arose in China for the regulation and control of this type of substances.

Mines, IEDs, unexploded ordnance

Mines, IEDs, unexploded ordnance (UXO), surplus ammunition and explosives, are readily available throughout society and the environment after an armed conflict.

Land mines and minefields

Especially mines and IEDs can effectively prevent access and use of an area, for example for agriculture. Refugees can be barred from returning home, transports can be difficult or impossible. The Mine Weapons Convention prohibits anti-personnel mines, but despite its provisions there are, and will be in the future, very large numbers of emplaced such mines, with resources lacking to clear them. Military forces must, under the Mine Weapons Convention and also for self- preservation, keep records and maps of minefields and individual mines, but if a combat zone was used by both sides, perhaps including relatively disorganised armed groups, in a back and forth fluctuating combat, there will typically be much less or zero documentation. Different fighters, such as non-governmental factions, may also consider themselves unbound by the Convention and lay out new or used mines or IEDs. Thereby areas already cleared may be re-infected, which will disrupt society's operations and structure and create a need for new clearance efforts and divert resources away from the main task to clear known existing minefields. Floods and sand storms can also contribute to already cleared land becoming mine infested again.

Unexploded ordnance

Unexploded ordnance, or UXO, "Duds", can be found wherever combat has occurred, and sometimes at other locations, since erroneous shelling or bombing can often occur. Especially Russian-built munitions seem to have a high rate of malfunction.
Munitions storages and dumps
Surplus munitions are often stored in huge “dumps”, which in the worst case will be located outdoors with no protection. Their location can also be very inappropriate, in the middle of cities, near dwellings, other premises and transport routes, and often they are poorly or not at all fenced and gated, rendering them neither safe nor secure, and making it easy to steal explosive ordnance items that can be used as IEDs. If not in dumps, munitions storages may also be as poorly secured and guarded. Explosive munitions that were exposed to temperature cycling for a long time can be dangerous to handle, and may even explode by itself. If the climate is hot and humid, further serious problems will arise.
Leftover or expired munitions may have been dumped at various locations, without being destroyed, for example at sea, in lakes and rivers or in disused mines. If munitions are located under water some of the mechanisms that make it unsafe will have less effect, including temperature cycling, but instead, the steel and metal components will rust and may break. Normally, military explosives are very resistant even under water and can remain fairly unchanged over hundreds of years at prevalent deep water temperatures, but some parts or contaminants in them may dissolve and spread to groundwater, wells, etc.. Most explosives are very toxic, causing different effects, and may affect humans, animals and plants in very negative ways.
Handling of explosives requires special skills and experience. Independent work with an unknown explosive is one of earth's most dangerous operations, where a single error may lead to instant death!
Often trained technicians do not want to work with such tasks; hence there is need for training of new specialists. With modern technology, such as computer-aided training and interactive supervision, the situation could be improved. Additional requirements for a mine and munitions clearance expert will be many years of practical experience, effective resorption of all experience collected among elder generations, plus a suitable, extremely stable psychological profile.
Chemical weapons and chemical substances
Also in civil society there are many hazardous chemicals that may be used as chemical weapons, including herbicides and insecticides. Many of these were banned in the West, but may remain in various developing countries. To synthesise and manage such compounds requires specific expertise. For some chemical warfare agents, such as nerve gases, you can find synthesis recipes on the Internet; however, the CWC makes chemical weapons and their precursors prohibited to possess, handle or deal with, which makes them difficult to obtain.

Some other phenomena and objects that represent risks to society and population and which obstruct the emergence of a peaceful society

Lack of societal control

The societal system of affected countries is often disturbed or destroyed. Societal control requires a state monopoly on violence, which will be difficult or impossible to maintain if illegal factions and militias will be of superior strength to police and military, perhaps in all of numbers, equipment and motivation.

Lack of democracy and influence

This creates many conflicts, which will increase the frustration and propensity to violence of humans.
Poor respect for human life
After an armed conflict with large losses there is risk that human life is valued very low, and therefore the threshold for use of violence will be lowered.

Corruption

Corruption is a dominant and difficult problem in many communities, strongly obstructing reconstruction and creation of a normal society, and it will also increase dissent and antagonism between different groups. Corruption is also a highly aggravating factor for various relief efforts and often means that aid cannot reach those people who need it most. The only possibilities to reduce and eliminate corruption are education and changing of attitudes, plus creating an efficient and independent judicial system which must be functioning well at all levels of society.

Embedded conflicts

Embedded conflicts can be quite deep, inherited, age-old and infected, between different peoples, religions, clans, families or other groups, and can be difficult or impossible to affect or eliminate. Several generations may have to pass before it may be possible to change hostile attitudes created by such embedded conflicts.

Use of force

In a society with large amounts of violence there is risk that humanitarian aid may never arrive, because various relief agencies cannot or will not be able to operate in the area. Hence, vulnerable people and groups of people will suffer even more.

Violence

Use of violence is augmented by ample access to weapons, munitions and explosives, which in turn means that the impact of violence will become more serious and affect more people. This will also cause emergence and protraction of conflicts between groups! Extensive use of force renders difficult or impossible every effort to build a "normal" society.

Lack of essential supplies such as food and water !

This may be due to a true deficit, but more often to insufficient resources for transportation, etc., and none or poor function of other infrastructures. Food may rot or be damaged by vermin before it can be distributed because of lack of suitable storage, transport means, etc..

Inadequate or non-functioning infrastructure

Lack of functional infrastructure is a naturally emerging problem after an armed conflict. Much of the infrastructure, such as water, electricity and communications may be damaged or destroyed, and may often have been inadequate even before the conflict.

Other obstacles to the emergence of a peaceful society

Conflicts between ethnic groups, clans, warlords, criminal or other groups can sometimes be centuries old, and people involved may even have forgotten why they started, but they just know "that it has always been so." Often they involve the power over an area and its resources. Old conflicts can sometimes come to the surface, prompted by minor incidents, be reactivated and cause major steps in the wrong direction.

Other states' involvement

It is common for both global powers and neighbouring States to see an internal conflict or a failing state as a reason to intervene in various ways, also militarily, in order to obtain benefits. Additionally, the international community may intervene, often with good purpose, but also, unfortunately, often with negative consequences.

Lack of control and lack of an effective state apparatus

If a legal government cannot establish control of its own country, a peaceful society cannot be realised. If the government lacks trust by its own people, society will function badly, and if it does not have sufficient means in the form of police, military and legal system, or if these are corrupt, the prospects will be poor.

Lack of water

From time to time there will be shortages of water at some places on earth, which sometimes will lead to conflicts. However, people usually have learned to deal with these problems. The first humans followed the water and moved as lakes or rivers dried out. In our time we instead move water to man by building dams, reservoirs, canals, aqueducts, water pipelines, pumping stations and water towers.

In the last hundred years, the world population has increased strongly, urbanisation has increased tremendously and many Megacities have arisen. Water consumption per capita has also increased sevenfold, and naturally occurring fresh water is no longer enough to quench our thirst, cleanse ourselves and our environment, and also to provide agriculture or industry with adequate amounts, so competition for water has increased at local, regional and national levels. Today many large rivers have almost no water left when they reach the sea. Moreover, human activities and climate change create risk for dramatic redistribution of water resources.

Similar problems exist also in Sweden !

Explosive remnants exist also at many and various locations in Western countries, also in Sweden, even though Sweden has enjoyed peace and avoided war action since 1814. It is self-evident that other European nations, which were exposed to both the first and second World Wars, will suffer much more extensive and often unknown problems. In Sweden, primarily the problems are connected with exercise and firing ranges, which, in some cases, may have been used for hundreds of years, and where no one now has an overview of what may be found within them. Additionally, very large amounts of surplus, decommissioned or defective munitions and explosives were dumped at sea, in lakes and abandoned mines, both by the Defence Forces and various munitions manufacturers.

Clearing of land and water areas

Demands for new land or water use will occur when areas are abandoned by the Defence Forces. At some locations where there were military regiments, such areas may be located within or close to city centres, and thereby being highly attractive to both private investors and municipalities.

With the need for new uses of such sites problems will arise. Often a municipality will insist to make use of such land areas, which were left by Defence at very large scale in recent years. Clearance tasks will then often be procured by a community, in the open market, with no quality assurance of the competence of the company or organisation winning the contract. In many cases they have proven highly incompetent, exposing to great risks builders, construction workers and the general public.
An area shelled by, for example, artillery, or even more so with aerial bombs, UXOs may be found many meters into the ground. Safe clearance of such areas would require that all materials down to the depth deemed safe would need to be bulldozed and shipped away, at a cost that would frequently be deemed completely unacceptable. The clearance work can sometimes entail significant risk for both work force and the public. At static detonation of a 15.5 cm artillery shell the normal risk area for fragments will be of radius 600 m; for a large aerial bomb much more, typically 1500 meters for a 1000 lb HE bomb with a solid metal casing! Even outside these risk areas, material objects may be propelled. These risk area sizes are results of risk weighting for defence purposes, and it is not certain that the area outside is totally free of risk.

An all hazards risk analysis is often missing. The different roles of the various parties are unclear. No one has, or has assumed, full responsibility for the areas concerned. On the contrary, the different actors involved will often shirk responsibility in order to avoid liability for the ensuing cost. Often, the government will decide on the decommissioning of an area: the Armed Forces were the users, however, normally it was owned by another Government authority, in Sweden the Fortifications Administration (FortV). The area may be transferred, for example, to a municipality, which in turn will assume responsibility for something for which they completely lack the necessary knowledge, skills or experience, and, indeed, may not even know enough to procure a clearance effort. Cost will be a strongly governing factor, and if incorrect requirements were put up, money may be "thrown down the drain" and major hazards may also arise. Clarification of liability issues and establishment of guidelines how remediation matters of this nature should be dealt with must be regarded as important and highly urgent.

Societal utility

From a socio-economic aspect the utility of “new use” of an "infected" area should be put in relation to the cost of remediation. In many cases such comparison would be likely to show that it would be better to let the area remain uncleared. This will not preclude its use in certain ways, for example as a recreational area. The public has long had access to various Defence firing and training grounds, with no extensive accidents occurring, and as long as you do not dig into the ground or pick up and handle various munitions which might be found, the risks can be considered quite low. Exceptions may exist, and for such areas it must be decided whether they should be cleared, or be fenced in and access prohibited. However munitions abandoned on forested or open land give rise to two types of risks. One is that they may cause accidents if somebody would disturb or, by ignorance, pick up an object like a fuze, which may explode and injure, maim or kill; The other is that interested persons, for example youngsters, criminals or terrorists, may actively search for and seize explosively charged objects in order to use them for their purposes. In Sweden there is a ban on field use of metal detectors, mainly intended to prevent looting of ancient remains and artefacts buried in the ground, but this will not prevent unscrupulous people from using them to find explosive items.

Regulations and standards

There are no regulations or quality standards in Sweden for clearance of abandoned firing and training ranges or other similar areas. According to the UN recommendations, as given in the IATG, such rules must exist and be implemented, and there must also be a central national authority with overall responsibility for all EOD and demining. Such structures were created in many developing countries, but unfortunately not yet in Sweden. Sweden has adopted the IATG, but has still done little to implement its rules and recommendations.

Figure 3 Locations where ammunition and explosives were dumped. Source: Swedec

Dumping

There exist many locations in Sweden where ammunition and explosives were manufactu¬red, stored or dumped, for example at sea, in lakes and in abandoned underground mines and quarries. The map of fig. 3 shows the distribution of these problems. Some dumps are relatively well demarcated, fenced off and not easy to access, while others may be very poorly protected. There are even examples of lakes where munitions are sometimes visible above the surface at low water. At sea many different nations have dumped huge amounts of ammunition, and naval mines from both World Wars still remain deployed, despite major clearance efforts, in great numbers both in the Baltic and along the Western coast of Sweden. Elder naval mines are normally anchored to the sea bed, but sometimes, after many years of corrosion, may tear loose and become mines drifting with wind and current! Also chemical weapons, chiefly mustard gas, dumped mainly by Hitler’s Germany, exist in the South Baltic, and will sometimes be caught by fishing vessels. Also these, quite extensive problems, would benefit from the existence of a central authority with the responsibility of coordinating all efforts concerning such problems.

Need for a Swedish profile in SALW and SCA

The policy areas of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) and Stockpiles of Conventional Ammunition (SCA) have become a renewed international focus. Sweden is an acknowledged actor, called for in international projects undertaken to promote global security of weapons and munitions. Mainly through the resources of the Armed Forces (Swedec), Sweden participates in so-called PSSM (Physical Security and Stockpile Management) projects, but activities are fragmented and there is no explicit Swedish strategy. An explicit Swedish profile involving both authorities and business community would benefit both Sweden and International safety and security.

A global problem

The lack of control of weapons and munitions is a global problem which increasingly attracts the attention of international actors. The illegal trade in weapons and munitions is closely related to human and drug trafficking, organised crime and terrorism, and hereby constitutes one of the dominant safety and security threats against our globalised society. The ATT (Arms Trade Treaty) improves the ability to exercise control of this trade.

By limiting proliferation at an early stage, consequences can be alleviated. This has meant that actors like the UN, OSCE, AU (African Union) and the EU operate and promote projects conducted in states where control of weapons and munitions is inadequate. PSSM projects are tools applied to help states in need and will be carried out only in states positive to receiving assistance and asking for support. Sweden is a sought-after actor with unique expertise in this field.

In recent years, PSSM projects have undergone a transformation which has meant that activities have evolved from counselling to capacity building. Previous visits were conducted by expert teams who would hand over recommendations for the affected government to be able to increase security and safety around arms and munitions. The practical execution then passed over to the State itself to manage, at best with financial support from the international community.

The new type of projects involves considerably more extensive support. A number of voluntary countries normally join together to form a project team responsible for a long-term plan for capacity building in the country in need. Initially the supporting states will supply all assistance, such as training and equipment. Gradually responsibility will be handed over, piece by piece, to the receiving State, until they will perform all operations completely self-reliant. This means that these commitments will be more long-term than in the past and requiring a different type of resources.

This new generation of projects has also led to a clearer profiling regarding the type of support provided by different actors. No clear Swedish profile exists, and so Sweden’s role will be perceived as ill-defined and fragmented in different projects.

Munitions technical skills are in demand

It has been shown that Sweden has unique expertise in the technical field of munitions and explosives, including commercial types. These services are in demand as a natural complement to other countries' areas of expertise. Within the Armed Forces almost exclusively resources from the Swedish EOD and Demining Centre (Swedec) and the Armed Forces Logistics Command (FMLOG) were used.

Swedec has worked to prioritise the areas where there is unique expertise, which meant that a Swedish munitions technology profile has begun to take shape in projects undertaken. In the EU- led PSSM-project in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden was responsible for documenting existing ammunition types and producing a munitions technology manual. This product filled a clear need and similar demands now exist in other projects. A similar manual was developed by Swedec in the OSCE-led PSSM project in Moldova.

So far, the ammunition technology profile was exclusively built around the expertise available within the Defence Forces. However, Sweden has other unique expertise and resources that can strengthen and complement this profile. Sweden conducts unique research (FOI) and has specialised industry in ammunition surveillance, world leading industry in secure storage solutions and expertise in safety and protective technology. In addition, Sweden has unique industry working with environmentally friendly recycling and destruction of munitions. Together, this creates the basis for a complete Swedish concept in munitions technology.

Some notable Swedish companies active in relevant areas are Ericsson (www.ericsson.com/en), Saab AB (saab.com), Swedish Net (swedishnet.se), Disarmament Solutions AB (disarmamentsolutions.com), Cesium AB (cesium.se) , Dynasafe AB (dynasafe.com) and OLCON Engineering AB (olcon.se).

Swedec is a unit of the Swedish Armed Forces: forsvarsmakten.se/sv/organisation/totalforsvarets-ammunitions-och-minrojningscentrum-swedec.

Some conclusions

From the descriptions of the needs and opportunities it appears that there may be many areas where entities mentioned could be effectively and successfully utilised for Swedish humanitarian operations. Many more companies and organisations might also contribute! Currently most services procured for Swedish foreign development aid activities are found in the international or sometimes the local markets in the current support countries. Therefore, unfortunately, the Government fails to utilise most of the relevant, substantial and outstanding, relevant skills and equipment available in Sweden.

Management, control, clearance, destruction and recycling of munitions and explosive items are areas of particular significance to eliminate barriers and obstacles and facilitate the building of a peaceful society. These components will, of course, also be important in military operations, but here we refer to the period after the conclusion of hostilities. There still exist much expertise and technology in this field in Sweden, but unfortunately all at risk of disappearing, partly because the defence financing in the area has decreased dramatically or disappeared. Abroad, persons concerned often know about the Swedish competence and ask for it. An investment in this area, including as part of development assistance, would contribute to make Sweden a unique country, which would attempt to eliminate the roots of evil, rather than to try to relieve the symptoms !

By drafting an explicit Swedish strategy and profile in munitions technology, a unique total solution for the munitions component in PSSM projects would be created. Sweden could take a complete responsibility that would clearly profile Swedish authorities, expertise and research, and promote domestic industry. The fact that those same kinds of problems with munitions and explosives, current in war-affected developing countries, also occur extensively in our own country ought to increase motivation to ensure that the necessary expertise would be maintained within Sweden.

Sweden should actively support the work of SaferGuard and implementation of IATG in selected countries, and to do this would be clearly in line with Swedish foreign policy and humanitarian traditions. Sweden also needs to introduce IATG's principles for domestic use! The implementation of the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) in different countries is, in part, supported through EU financed projects, where Sweden has a high profile. This could be one possible channel to carry out and implement some proposals advanced in this paper.

Peace Technology, geared towards seeking to reduce violence in the world by, among other things, providing support for controlling and reducing the availability of illegal weapons and munitions, and increasing security of their handling, could develop into a unique Swedish profile area! Skills and activities required already exist! Strong international pressure, including from the United Nations and some countries concerned, will mean that this could rapidly be established !

Alfred Nobel and the Peace Prize

According to Nobel's will, the Peace Prize shall be awarded to the person who in the preceding year "shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.

Alfred Nobel died in 1896 and he did not leave an explanation for also choosing peace as a prize category. As he was a trained chemical engineer, the categories for chemistry and physics were obvious choices. The reasoning behind the peace prize is less clear. According to the Norwegian Nobel Committee, his friendship with Bertha von Suttner (nee Kinsky), a peace activist and later recipient of the prize, profoundly influenced his decision to include peace as a category. Some Nobel scholars suggest it was Nobel's way to compensate for developing highly destructive forces. His inventions included dynamite and ballistite, both of which were used violently during his lifetime. Ballistite was used in war and an Irish nationalist organisation carried out dynamite attacks already in the 1880s. Nobel was also instrumental in turning the Bofors Co. from an iron and steel producer into an armaments company.

Nobel was a great entrepreneur and industrialist, in addition to being an avid inventor with about 700 patents credited to his name. His three most important inventions were the blasting cap, dynamite and ballistite (smokeless gun propellant). He had become very aware of the risks inherent in explosives, as there had been many severe and lethal accidents during his development work and later manufacture of these products. Even his younger brother Emil had been killed at an early experiment involving nitroglycerine. In his later industrial work, Nobel was quite concerned with occupational health and safety, as he knew from his long experience that any work with explosives would sooner or later result in accidents. It would then be a matter of assuring that if an accident would occur, none or as few persons as possible would be injured or killed, which could be achieved by compartmenta¬lisation, also efficient to assure that an accident would not spread and increase in size. He was also very aware of the fact that in order to reduce the number of accidents any work with explosives required highly trained personnel. So for personnel involved in explosives manufacture and handling he would hire their sons as apprentices, to ensure both that there would be a future supply of trained crew and that the workers would be very careful in both work and instruction in order to ensure that their sons would not risk getting hurt.

Alfred Nobel had believed that his inventions of, among many, dynamite and ballistite would work to discourage any further wars by their very high destructive capability. Influenced by Ms. Von Suttner, he also realised that work for peace would be essential.

The knowledge of explosives is still crucial in any work concerning them, and in particular so for humanitarian demining, UXO clearance, handling of explosive storages and demilitarisation. Regrettably much of this knowledge has been lost in modern society. The UN IATG4 constitutes a very good basis for any such work, but needs to be complemented by adequate, often advanced and extensive training courses for any personnel involved. The UN SaferGuard project is aimed at spreading and assisting in implementing the IATG.

The author

The author is a graduate of the Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, with an MSc degree in Engineering Physics, and has a Ph.D. in Medical Science/Surgery from the University of Göteborg. He is Professor (h.c.) of Ballistics at the Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China, formerly Adjunct Professor of Energy Technology at the Mälardalen University, and formerly Director, Head of Division and Research Director, having worked 39 years with weapons, munitions, explosives and their effects, at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) and its predecessor FOA. 1991-93 he was a visiting scientist at DSTO Australia. He is a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences and a Life Founding Fellow of the International Ballistics Society.

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[28] https://www.tekniskamuseet.se/en/learn-more/swedish-inventors/alfred-nobel-dynamite/ (accessed 1 October 2022)

[29] Hans Walin, personal communication.